PACHS: An Alternative, Solitary Vision of the Climate Crisis. Alongside the question “What causes the climate crisis?”, we felt compelled to ask a more fundamental one: “What exactly is the climate crisis?”
This is not an attempt to deny climate change or global warming — quite the contrary. Over time, and without changing its core spirit, our inquiry has evolved and deepened. What began as a solitary vision has become a shared pursuit, because regardless of whether our theory is correct or not, we need a strategy for action against drought - if intervention is needed at all: the one who asks must listen not only for answers, but for the questions as well. Science speaks in the language of what is known — and replies in the language of the unknown.
The Core Idea
Drought, warming, and human impact — each is widely studied. But the results often stay in separate silos. PACHS is an experiment in seeing the system as a whole.
What picture do we get when we put all the pieces of the puzzle in place?
Global climate change is not just about warming. It is something much more severe: surface and atmospheric drought. These phenomena occur simultaneously and are often linked — it seems logical to assume that warming causes drought.
But what if warming is a side effect — a symptom of a systemic imbalance? Perhaps we’re not simply “heating up,” but drifting toward climatic extremes — more frequent and intense heatwaves, driven by the lack of water’s thermal stabilizing role. The key lies in the disruption of the Earth's hydrological balance, where a critical loss of water removes nature’s ability to buffer extremes.
So what causes the drought? Water is gradually disappearing from Earth’s natural system and being permanently retained in closed, man-made systems — we store and trap it, withholding it from the global water cycle. This is what we call PACHS: Persistent Anthropogenic Closed Hydrological Systems. The study of this issue could provide important insights for the development of action strategies, and it may readily become apparent that addressing the climate crisis requires more than has been undertaken thus far.
Global warming alone does not explain the occurrence of drought or extreme weather events. It is also necessary to investigate the processes arising from the absence of the moderating influence of water’s high specific heat capacity, and to determine the causes of atmospheric and surface water deficits. It is possible that we now have access to modelling capabilities and datasets that could allow us to rigorously test the role of human interventions in triggering global drought.
Points of Debate
- 1: If water is removed locally, how could its impact be global?
- Climate operates in distinct zones, and droughts vary widely. But water vapor behaves globally. The total water available in circulation affects the behavior of entire subsystems. If less vapor moves through the atmosphere, everything — including rain patterns — shifts. The effects are uneven, but deeply interconnected.
- 2: Due to the absence of the insulating effect of cloud cover, nocturnal cooling would be expected to intensify, would it not?
- This phenomenon is likely to occur with increasing frequency if current global trends remain unchanged and the situation continues to deteriorate. The evaporation of local surface and subsurface water reserves mitigates nocturnal temperature drops, but only for as long as—and in places where—such reserves have not been depleted. In certain regions, this pattern is already being observed in locations (and at times) where it has not previously been recorded.
- 3: If balance is lost, why does only heat increase — not cold?
- Global warming is only one of two possible extremes. Its dominance signals the loss of dynamic equilibrium — one that water vapor previously enabled. Without clouds, shading, or precipitation, the mechanisms that help the atmosphere cool down can’t operate effectively.
- 4: Isn’t water vapor itself a greenhouse gas — wouldn’t more of it make things worse?
- Yes — but only in part. Water also plays a critical thermal balancing role due to its high specific heat. This means that as water vapor increases, it not only warms but also counterbalances temperature extremes — including those caused by greenhouse gases. The overall effect is regulatory, not amplifying.
- 5: If this is so urgent, why don’t we hear more about it?
- Because it’s slow and masked by variability. The trend spans centuries, with upswings and regressions. Its effects are difficult to isolate, vary by region, and are hard to track historically. Meanwhile, global climate systems tend to compensate — until they no longer can.
Our Tasks Ahead
A: Modeling
Investigating the causality of the hypothesis through simulation
Background: Mainstream climate models attribute drought to global warming. This alternative theory posits that PACHS — long-term water storage in closed systems — disrupts the water cycle, triggering atmospheric drought and thereby indirect temperature extremes.
Research questions: How does a systematic reduction in surface evaporation and transpiration alter atmospheric humidity, rainfall patterns, and temperature? What is the relationship between greenhouse effect and atmospheric moisture changes?
Proposed simulation scenarios (in a drought-prone region):
- Control scenario: 100% evaporation, average greenhouse gas concentration.
- Scenario 2: 50% evaporation — as if part of the water is stored away.
- Scenario 3: 90% evaporation loss — simulating extreme water withdrawal.
- Scenario 4: 90% evaporation loss — simulating extreme water withdrawal.
- Scenario 4: Gradual evaporation loss over centuries — simulating the long-term accumulation of PACHS effects from early urban water storage to present-day conditions
Expected outputs:
- Change in atmospheric humidity
- Change in precipitation amounts
- Evolution of drought indices
- Temperature shifts (daily and annual averages)
Goal: To present a scientifically grounded, working model that offers an alternative explanation of cause-and-effect in the climate crisis.
B Estimation
Quantifying how much water is being removed from the natural cycle by human systems
Background: The most climate-relevant form of human interference in the water cycle is PACHS — every method of water use that results in long-term retention: pipes, tanks, cooling/heating systems, bottled drinks, pools, and more.
Research question: How much water has been sequestered — long-term — by human infrastructure, and could this volume reach climate-altering thresholds?
Steps: Estimate the total storage volumes of:
- Municipal piping systems
- Household and industrial tanks
- Toilets (tank count & volume)
- Swimming pools, ornamental lakes
- Bottled water production
- Cooling and heating system capacities Then:
- Scale the data using population and infrastructure metrics.
- Add temporal growth trends: urban expansion, rising consumption, historical accumulation.
Scaling model: Extrapolate pilot-city data to regional and global levels, accounting for urbanization, industrialization, cultural differences, and historical patterns.
Outputs:
- Total retained water volume per city / globally
- Estimated yearly growth in closed-system storage
- Cross-reference with model: how much withdrawal correlates with climate shift?
C: Action strategies
Developing recommendations for drought disaster prevention
Outlook Regardless of the results of the research project, the design of recommendations for various regions, in sync with the PACHS theory, to prevent the catastrophic consequences of directly experienced, real atmospheric and surface drought.
Consultation Using the results of the research project, further develop the timing of the measures of the action strategy, using the knowledge gained during the modelling regarding expected trends (taking into account the possibility that no action is needed in the long term).
Related Research
- Effects of Climate and Anthropogenic Drivers on Surface Water Area – Human activities strongly impact surface water distribution.
- Anthropogenic Drought: Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities – Overview of drought induced by human water management.
- Impacts of Anthropogenic Water Regulation on Global Riverine DOC Transport – Retention reduces organic carbon transport in rivers.
- Compounding Impacts of Human‑Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability – Human water use may lead to more severe drought than historical records.
- Evidence of Anthropogenic Impacts on Global Drought Frequency, Duration, and Intensity – CMIP6 shows human influence increases drought event.
- Interaction of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity on Surface Water Areas – Landsat data confirms global surface water decline due to combined human and climate effects.
Action strategies
- India – NICRA Strategy – Drought-resilient crop varieties, soil and water management, local technology transfer, and agricultural adaptation.
- Iran – Conjunctive Water Management – Coordinated use of surface and groundwater resources in the Hormozgan region.
- Australia – Future Drought Fund – Drought Hubs, farmer support, education, and climate adaptation programs.
- West Africa – FSRP Program – Strengthening regional food and water resilience through weather-based forecasting and community development.
- South Africa – Cape Town Day Zero – Reducing water consumption, regulating tariffs, and developing alternative water sources to prevent crisis.
- Guatemala – Sustainable Farming Initiative – Community-based agricultural programs to enhance food security and prevent drought impacts for small-scale farmers.
- Thailand – Lam Ta Kong Drought Mapping – Use of geospatial and analytical tools to assess drought sensitivity and inform localized planning.
- UNESCO–WMO–UNCCD – National Drought Plans – Global guidelines for early warning, capacity building, and coordinated governmental drought response mechanisms.
חירות לפלסטין
𝕷𝖊𝖇𝖊𝖓𝖘𝖗𝖆𝖚𝖒